Might Nintendo Pass Another Year Without Introducing A Successor To The Switch?
Beginning the Gaming Odyssey: A Year Ahead with Nintendo’s Switch — Can it Survive Without a Successor?
Yet another year has rolled around, and here we stand once more — pondering if the upcoming 12 months could usher in what every Nintendo enthusiast eagerly anticipates: a fresh piece of hardware.
It’s been quite a while now that we’ve been delving into discussions and updates about the prospect of another Nintendo system. The rumors of a ‘Switch Pro’ started circulating shortly after the original console’s launch in March 2017.
While the Switch Lite and Switch OLED brought about modest alterations to the base system, and the original Switch underwent a ‘silent’ internal upgrade for improved battery life, it’s been nearly seven full years since a completely new piece of Nintendo technology has graced our hands.
On one side, this scarcity is a consequence of merging handheld and home console lines into a single product — naturally resulting in 50% fewer hardware reveals compared to previous generations. However, for an industry and audience that thrive on the allure of shiny innovations, it feels somewhat peculiar to approach the eighth year of Switch at retail without a public announcement or even a hint of a successor.
Certainly, the Switch is an impressive system, showcasing developers’ ability to work wonders on it. Nonetheless, it’s undeniable that its mobile chipset wasn’t cutting-edge even at launch.
Bringing third-party titles to Nintendo gamers nowadays could be considerably smoother if developers had a tad more horsepower at their disposal. While nobody expects ‘Switch 2’ to match the performance of the PS5, utilizing some 2020 or 2021 vintage silicon could provide a substantial boost over the mid-2010s tech propelling the current console.
However! When we survey the Switch releases of the past year, featuring Game of the Year-level gems like Zelda and Mario Wonder, complemented by Pikmin 4, Theatrhythm Final Bar Line, Persona 5 Tactica, Super Mario RPG, Sea of Stars, Blasphemous 2, a Red Dead port, Octopath II…, it doesn’t align with a typical seventh-year lineup for a console (and that only scratches the surface).
A look back at previous Nintendo systems’ seventh years indicates that Switch’s robust software library at this point in its lifecycle is an attribute inherited from its handheld ancestors, which generally enjoy a longer shelf life than their home-based counterparts.
As development times and costs rise across the industry, Sony and Microsoft also seek to extend console lifecycles.
Considering the abundance of quality games on Switch, it’s arguably only ingrained habits and expectations making us eager for the scent of new hardware. Who really needs a Switch 2 when another year of stellar releases could be on the horizon?
The compelling argument for an imminent announcement comes from Switch’s hardware sales figures. While we assume bundles sold well during the holidays (confirmation pending in Nintendo’s next financial report in February), the overall hardware sales are dwindling. Quarterly Switch sales went from 3.07 million (reported May 2023) to a Zelda-boosted 3.91 million (August 2023) to 2.93 million (November 2023).
Sure, the Thanksgiving/Christmas period will likely provide a boost to the last quarter’s results, and those numbers are nothing to scoff at. However, year-on-year, they’re on a steady decline. Without an unprecedented price cut, it seems unlikely that Nintendo will manage to sell the 20 million+ Switches needed to match up with Nintendo DS and PS2 (at 154 million and 155 million respectively).
This writer doubts Nintendo would fret about missing this imagined target, especially not at the expense of derailing plans for the next system. The Switch has undeniably been a massive success, regardless of its standing on the all-time best-sellers podium. The company will undoubtedly aim to kickstart its next cycle before those figures take a nosedive, prompting quarterly shareholder Q&As to become a barrage of “What’s next, Mr. President?”
The reality now is that anyone genuinely interested in a Switch likely already owns one. At this juncture, it appears overly optimistic to expect new Switch games of the caliber of TOTK and Mario Wonder. While we’d love to be proven wrong, this feels like an opportune year for the Switch to bow out on a high note.
And wouldn’t it be a pleasant surprise for Nintendo to release some fresh, driftless Joy-Con with its next system? That would indeed be a nice touch.
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